Market Watch

Cyprus Size DD

Time for an update on the Cyprus debacle from HEDGE…


It seems that the Cypriot government is going full circle on its plans to save its nation and its people. As UK Think Tank Open Europe notes, “it now seems we have come all the way back round to the deposit levy as a solution in Cyprus. Overnight, the EU/IMF/ECB Troika rejected the plans for a Cypriot solidarity fund, particularly one based on pension assets and gas reserve revenues (which German Chancellor Angela Merkel specifically spoke out against).” The new – Plan ‘D’ – (Plan A – Haircuts; Plan B – Beg Russia for Bailout; Plan C – Solidarity Fund) appears to be moar haircuts and double-dip on the large depositors (seemingly what Brussels wants anyway). Plan ‘D’ – a restructuring and bigger deposit levy(a 12.2% tax on deposits above €500,000 or a 9.46% deposit on deposits above €100,000 would yield the necessary €3.5bn) – “may amount to trying to burn the larger depositors twice,” as the plan to shift bad assets to a bad bank (along with the large uninsured depositors) and wound down (meaning 20-40% losses) and still face the initial large-deposit-tax – leaving the Russians large depositors with 50%-plus losses.

Thinking about the plan in more detail, it occurred to us that this may amount to trying to burn the larger depositors twice. As we noted in today’s press summary, the plan essentially is to move all the bad assets to a bad bank, along with the large uninsured depositors (€100,000+). These assets would then be wound down or sold off at a large discount with the depositors footing the bill (and taking losses of 20% – 40%). This, along with the merging of Bank of Cyprus and the good bank, is how the recapitalisation costs will be reduced by €2.3bn.

So, the large depositors will take significant losses here and yet may still face a large deposit tax as well? That seems to be pushing the boundaries to us, although it is not impossible. Cyprus would not recover as destination for foreign investment for some time. One way to structure this could be for the tax only to be applied to depositors above €500,000 (as we suggest below) and the bad bank to apply to all uninsured deposits. Obviously, the bad bank scheme also only applies to Laiki bank, but as the second largest Cypriot bank it is still likely to account for a large amount of big deposits.

Still this could see larger depositors taking up to 50% hits in some cases. We can’t imagine Moscow would take that one lying down

Bloomberg Adds HERE

As Russia spurned the island nation’s bid for a loan, Merkel told a closed-door meeting of legislators in Berlin today that she’s annoyed the Cypriot government hasn’t been in touch with the so-called troika of international creditors for days, according to a party official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the briefing was private. Cyprus’s decision to test Europe is unacceptable, she told them.

“We’re not ready to accept solutions that are full of wind,” Michael Fuchs, deputy parliamentary leader of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, said after the meeting. “I don’t think it’s appropriate to play poker in this matter, especially when you think that there’s a risk that two banks will become insolvent next Monday.”

Sounds pretty serious Merkel. You want to play chicken, you better be able to call the bluff. Some countries may not just roll-over and beg.