The Deth Guild

I have been waiting for this news for some time. If indeed it is known that large scale defaults or going to occur then the new “bail-in” template shown in Cyprus needs to be disseminated to the rest of the fleet. Hat-Tip Hedge, Reuters, FT.

Several hours ago, EU finance ministers announced that they had reached agreement on the principles governing the imposition of losses on creditors in bank ‘bail ins’. Having already agreed to establish “depositor preference” in the pecking order of creditors at risk, the stumbling block to agreement was the availability of flexibility at the national level to complement the bail in with injections of funds from other sources. Under the compromise achieved overnight, once a bail in equivalent to 8% of total liabilities has been implemented, support from other sources can be used (up to 5% of total liabilities) with approval from Brussels.

So investors (i.e. yield chasers) and not taxpayers will foot the cost of bank bailouts going forward for a change? Maybe on paper: “From 2018, the so-called “bail-in” regime can force shareholders, bondholders and some depositors to contribute to the costs of bank failure. Insured deposits under €100,000 are exempt and uninsured deposits of individuals and small companies are given preferential status in the bail-in pecking order.” In reality, last night’s agreement is the usual fluid melange of semi-rigid rules filled with loopholes designed to benefit large banks whose impairment may be detrimental to “systemic stability”.

“While a minimum bail-in amounting to 8 per cent of total liabilities is mandatory before resolution funds can be used, countries are given more leeway to shield certain creditors from losses in defined circumstances.“ In other words, here is the bail in regime… which we may decide to ignore under “defined circumstances.”

After seven hours of late-night talks, finance ministers from the bloc’s 27 countries emerged with a blueprint to close or salvage banks in trouble. The plan stipulates that shareholders, bondholders and depositors with more than 100,000 euros ($132,000) should share the burden of saving a bank.

The deal is a boost for EU leaders, who meet later on Thursday in Brussels, and can show that they are finally getting to grips with the financial crisis that began in mid-2007 with the near collapse of Germany’s IKB.

“For the first time, we agreed on a significant bail-in to shield taxpayers,” said Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, referring to the process in which shareholders and bondholders must bear the costs of restructuring first.

Although this must be approved, the simple fact it is being discussed should scare the crap out of any depositor. An argument can be made that depositors are better targets for bailouts than taxpayers but any savings should be proactively protected as property of the depositor. Its not as if depositors are getting a high rate of return on their “investment”.

I wonder how well small safe companies are doing in the Euro zone. I should check their stock.

With all the impending financial doom coming from the Asia Pacific recently it can be easy to forget the European Union and the fiscal “challenges” it faces. Here is some recent news to remind us what the definition of “fubar”  is….

Italy is likely to need an EU rescue within six months as the country slides into deeper economic crisis and a credit crunch spreads to large companies, a top Italian bank has warned privately.

The report warned that Italy will “inevitably end up in an EU bail-out request” over the next six months, unless it can count on low borrowing costs and a broader recovery.

Emphasizing the gravity of the situation, it compared the crisis with when the country was blown out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992 despite drastic austerity measures.

Italy’s €2.1 trillion (£1.8 trillion) debt is the world’s third largest after the US and Japan. Any serious stress in its debt markets threatens to reignite the Eurozone crisis. This may already have begun after the US Federal Reserve signaled last week that it will begin to drain dollar liquidity from the global system.

The ECB has already backed away from earlier plans to steer credit to small businesses in the Club Med bloc. The Italian banking association said it was bitterly disappointed by the latest break down in eurozone talks on a banking union, warning that it leaves Italy’s lenders at the mercy of a confidence crisis.

Andrew Roberts from RBS said the world has become “a dangerous place” as Fed tightening marks an inflection point in global liquidity.

…because we are loving every second of this…

(Hat-Tip Bill Quick at Daily Pundit. Graphic by Bruce Krasting)

…we don’t even care anymore that it’s utterly ruinous for the entire nation and will tangibly harm us…

…reality is sticking it’s knob in Blackhawk-Ben’s eye, and we intend to enjoy every solitary fucking second of it, consequences be damned.

All power to engines – RAMMING SPEED!

The insufferable cunt-sandwich that is Peggy Noonan, (as usual), misses the broad side of the barn, (not that a statist cog like her would ever deign to touch a firearm), with her belief twas President Peace-Prize’s IRS goons that suppressed the Tea-Party vote this election.

As always, Bill Quick at Daily Pundit is on the case to rectify the fem-tool’s tenuous grasp of reality:

This is the explanation that hacks like Noonan would prefer.

But the Tea Party most likely in large part sat out 2012 rather than vote for Mittens Romneycare, the spiritual Godfather of Obamacare. They also saw what their mighty surge in 2010 bought them – disdain, backstabbing, betrayal, and naked, brutal assaults from the GOP Ruling Party faction.
-Bill Quick

Read it all HERE.

Mr. Quick is slamming the 10-penny spike strait into Noonan’s sloping forehead. The fact is, our relatives, members, most of our ex-employees, and everyone we could talk to either stayed home entirely, wrote in protest candidates, or only voted down-ticket. There was absolutely NO WAY we were endorsing Willard Fillmoure Romneycare, or rewarding those establishment RePubic shit-weasels for their too-clever-by-half game of chicken.

We ain’t battered wives, and threats made by gentry class Republican dick-suckers are met with a punch to the nose.

Fuck them forever, the Republican Party can die off, rot, and crumble to dust – literally or figuratively, matters not – they won’t be getting our votes. Let the Moonbats run Goddamned hog-wild for a few more years, it only builds the case for the coming revolution and civil war all the better.

Let them get truly egregious.

Ok… perhaps we should have said “more truly egregious?” We may need to invent a completely new word to describe the levels of corruption, hypocrisy, maleficence, and bad-faith being demonstrated by the whole U.S. government towards it citizenry.

Or the people could just save the effort and string up the lot of them. Why discriminate – God will know the wheat from the chaff when they attempt to enter his kingdom.

(Hat-Tip to Mike Hendrix at Cold Fury).

Francis W. Porretto at Liberty’s Torch made it short and sweet:

Evidence For An Ugly Proposition: I’m a bit pressed this morning, so I’ll make this quick and blunt:

The federal government:

– Has decided to ignore the Constitution,
– Is in the process of suppressing dissent by force,
– And can no longer be stopped by peaceful means.

If you’re new to these ideas, you may rest assured, Gentle Reader, that others are not.
– Francis W. Porretto

Read the entire page HERE.

Reuters Reports HERE

As many as 200,000 demonstrators marched through the streets of Brazil’s biggest cities on Monday in a swelling wave of protest tapping into widespread anger at poor public services, police violence and government corruption.

The marches, organized mostly through snowballing social media campaigns, blocked streets and halted traffic in more than a half-dozen cities, including Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte and Brasilia, where demonstrators climbed onto the roof of Brazil’s Congress building and then stormed it.

Monday’s demonstrations were the latest in a flurry of protests in the past two weeks that have added to growing unease over Brazil’s sluggish economy, high inflation and a spurt in violent crime.

Around the country, protesters waved Brazilian flags, dancing and chanting slogans such as “The people have awakened” and “Pardon the inconvenience, Brazil is changing.“

Full article can be read at the above link. A few videos below to give some perspective of the demonstrations. Governments can only ignore economic policy for so long. Eventually, the results of currency devaluation and inflation come full circle.

Hat-Tip to Ol’ Remus at The Woodpile report:

No commentary necessary – let the illustrations speak:

These three gentlemen do quite a job of continuing each others thoughts, and maneuvering them to their rational, justifiable, and inevitable conclusion…

First we have TheCL at The Classical Liberal begins:

“I posit that the only people guilty of actually “hating America” today are those eagerly smearing the whistleblowers in a sad attempt to defend the Status Quo. It is they who are hostile to America’s limited-government tradition.”

“Today’s federal government — the biggest, most expensive, most powerful State the world has ever known — is a corrupt and lawless institution. Regardless of the party in power, the Constitution is treated like something to wipe their ass with at best. They do nothing but lie — both Republican and Democratic politicians alike. Their legions of petty tyrant bureaucrats slither behind arbitrary decrees of regulation and secrecy. The Gang of 545 have made penny-pinching misers out of formerly spendthrift drunken sailors. There are no legitimate excuses for the mess they’ve made. Zip. Zero. Nada. And making excuses for them (regarding anything at this point) is just plain sad, pathetic and quite frankly, embarrassing to watch.”

“Plain and simple. The federal government are the bad guys here. Not Snowden. Not Manning. Not Assange. The federal government are the bad guys. The entire institution doesn’t have an ounce of credibility to stand on, let alone the kind of trust necessarily required of knowing anyone’s intimate details. The chief traitors in our midst, those who deserve to be detained and tortured down at Guantanamo Bay, include the members of both the Bush Jr. and Obama regimes, the Congress, the CIA, the NSA, DHS, FBI, TSA, IRS, the rest of the federal alphabet soup, and soulless bureaucrats who do their bidding.”

“They are the people who’ve betrayed every last principle of America’s founding. Yet some “conservatives” actually believe they’re benevolent angels worthy of monitoring our every move? Give me a break. These people don’t give a rat’s ass about you, me, or our freedom. In fact we’re their primary enemy! So deal with it … The only “freedom” they’re “fighting for” is Rousseau’s boundless freedom of the State to do whatever the hell it damn well pleases.”
– TheCL

Bill Quick of Daily Pundit absorbs and continues…

“Look, folks, I realize I’m backing myself into the sort of corner where it will become impossible for me to support almost all of the candidates of any of the major parties, but so what? It doesn’t really matter who you vote for. Vote for Bush, get an attempt to shove scamnesty down your throat. Vote for Obama, get scamnesty shoved down your throat. Vote for Bush, get gigantic new entitlements, and one of the biggest spending increases in history, and a massive economic crash. Vote for Obama, and get gigantic new entitlements, the biggest spending increase in history, and the New American Depression. Vote for Bush, get a promise to sign an Assault Weapons Ban if congress sends it to him. Vote for Obama, get him sending a new Assault Weapons Ban to congress. Vote for Bush, get a vast new security state. Vote for Obama, get that security state on steroids.”

“Come on.”

“Liberty is going down the toilet, and clueless mouthbreathers are going nuts over how many dicks are in the wedding party, are blastulas the same as sixty year old grannies, and a host of other trivialities upon which to base the pretence that the parties are different in any significant way.”

“When, In the Course of human events….”

“That’s probably what it’s going to take, and I don’t know if the enervated American polity has such a course in it any more. But this mess is not going to be solved by voting for the Dems or the GOP based on how many gay men can dance on the head of a wedding pin.”
– Bill Quick

Mike Hendrix at Cold Fury builds on the foundation:

“By George, I think he’s got it. From his mouth to God’s ears–or at least, to the ears of those few stout souls left in this benighted land who still give a damn about liberty, independence, and their own damned dignity. It’s time to face facts here… and then, it’s going to be time to figure out what we’re going to do about it, and just how we’re gonna do it. It’s not going to be easy; the answers are by no means obvious. But at this moment, in this time, no one needs to blather to me any longer about the necessity of protecting this particular State, or of maintaining fealty or loyalty to it.”
– Mike Hendrix

Allow us to throw a few faggots onto the bonfire…

The Government of the United States of America has, in the last several decades, surrendered any pretense of legitimacy through its abuses. The following is by no means an all-inclusive list:

– It has abdicated the consent of the people through manipulated elections, the lies of a state controlled press and ignorant voters created by a nationalized education complex.

– The government has betrayed the sacred trust of its populous, and turned its probing eyes, ears and swords upon them.

– It has squandered the treasure of its own coffers and then, through the Federal Reserve bank, wasted what treasure it allows the public to keep.

– The government has acted in bad faith with regards to laws, legislation and regulation, exempting itself from the burdens of the population, and criminalizing virtually every single citizen within its borders.

– It has stripped away all constitutional protections against its abuses, empowered itself where expressly forbidden, and exceeded the restrictions placed upon it by the founders of this nation.

– The government has abused its regulatory agencies and the power they wield to punish, threaten and materially damage those who challenge its authority.

– It has abandoned the Constitutional mandate to protect the Nation’s borders, and acted to damage or hinder any States attempting to carry out its neglected responsibilities.

– The government has lied repeatedly to the people of its actions, intent and as to the nature of legislation and regulation it imposes – concocting implausible claims or spinning material lies to mislead the public trust whenever truth might prove counter-productive to its goals.

– It has stifled the free markets, individual entrepreneurship and freedom of economic choice through punitive, excessive and overly complex tax burdens – the enforcement of which is carried out maliciously and inequitably.

– The government has hindered, discouraged, rendered costly and made unbearable the free travel between the states through its regulatory and law enforcement agencies – while exempting itself from these burdens.

As such, the United States Federal Government has named itself the enemy of all free men the world over. It is therefore the moral duty and solemn obligation of all liberty loving souls to oppose, hinder its agents, materially harm and seek its downfall with every device at their disposal.

Such a conclusion can not be reached lightly – but as we cast our jaundiced eye to this unacceptable series of tyrannical overreaches, it has become patently obvious that nothing short the destruction of this cancer, (and all of its slithering tentacles), will save liberty from Leviathan’s ravenous maw.

The United States Government, absent the moral authority and consent to govern its population, rules by nothing more than force of arms and the terror such force emanates. Such a regime patriots are obliged to oppose at any cost, be it treasure or their own precious blood.

Bill Quick at Daily Pundit has some Sage advice for those willing to listen:

“Our experiment in self-rule is completely off the rails and barreling at full speed into a nightmarish fantasy land. It may be too late.”

“So don’t put all your eggs into the basket labeled “victory.” I think the odds at this point say we lose. Remember – hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

“If it all comes apart, you want to be one of those still around to pick up the pieces. Play the long game. The short game looks fairly ugly to me.”
– Bill Quick

Read the entire article for context HERE.

Then start working on that pantry.

Should you listen, and we all turn out to be wrong – nothing more than reactionary crazy gun-nutters – you are out nothing. In fact, we saved you money on food. You’re welcome. If we’re right… well… pray we’re wrong. But sure as shit don’t bet your lives on it.

Zero downside. Consider it coupon shopping. When you examine the true rate of inflation at the hands of Chimpy-McFiddle-Fucker at the Fed, any edibles you buy today realize a near instant savings.

Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker is watching the tires fly off Japan:

Nikkei down almost 700pts now…..

The error in people’s thinking is that capital “rotates” somewhere when this sort of thing happens.

The error comes from the idea that there was actually capital invested. There was not. It was all credit — margin debt, specifically, especially in the FX and credit space, where such is rampant and leverage is ridiculous.

In that case the “money” does not rotate somewhere, it goes poof as it never existed.

It appears that our pals over in Japan have lost control. This is what central bank and government hubris lead to.

Bernanke is next.

Tickercon 1.
– Karl Denninger

Click HERE to read it all.

Let it burn.

Mike Hendrix of Cold Fury became justifiably pissed off when the CSGV’s Prog-lizards starting referring to the Oath-Keepers “traitors” and the good man came to a salient conclusion….

“I keep saying it: sooner or later it’s going to come down to shooting these cocksuckers if the country is to be saved from them. I confess that I find myself less disturbed by that prospect with every successive insidious lie puked from their drooling mouths.”
-Mike Hendrix

Read his entire article HERE.

He’s right. Shit’s going to come unwound, one way or another. And we as a people deserve it. We fucking deserve it. You have been working on those preps – right?

Patrick Caddell at Brietbart woke up and smelled what’s burning today:

Something is going to have to give. We are on the cusp of some huge shift in power relations between the core and periphery, between the DC Beltway and flyover country. Right now, Washington has the upper hand, but an aggrieved population can always win–if it is willing to stand up and fight.

In the minds of ordinary Americans, the fuse of outrage has been lit. Now this is the question: Can honest but responsible leaders, truly reflecting populist anger, find a way to force change in DC? Moreover, can this needed reform happen without tearing apart the country?

Let’s hope so.

But we must know this for sure: One way or another, a revolution is coming.
– Patrick Caddell

Click HERE to view it all.

The fuse has been smoldering for several years pal. Welcome to the mother-fucking party. Bring your rope, pitchforks, and torches – because you’re out of your skull if you imagine this will be remedied at the ballot box. We as patriotic Americans are so far beyond the anger event horizon it’s ludicrous to even hope to the contrary. Those miserable orcs in Mordor will respond to nothing but the sharp sting of cold steel. Or hot lead.

Prepare accordingly constant readers.

Ol’ Remus over at The Woodpile Report is getting a bit cranky.

“Obama, Holder and their bizarre, halfwit cohorts have sailed so far from sight of shore even their cheerleaders have turned against them. It’s about time. They advertised themselves as a criminal enterprise at the outset and haven’t disappointed. There is no excuse, no justification for this administration that would convince any but the already convinced—largely weirdos with a grudge, the irredeemably tribal and the educated but clinically stupid. To say it once again: elect third world candidates, get a third world administration. Those who thought national elections should be an outreach program are coming to understand this, if not yet willing to articulate it. For the rest of us, we tire of getting the government they deserve.”
– Ol’ Remus

Read the entire article HERE.

Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker has this to say on Mordor’s latest round of intolerable acts:

Since by definition blanket seizure of records and data such as has now been disclosed to a nearly-exclusive extent seizes information from persons not under investigation for criminal activity and thus no probable cause exists there is no defense available to the NSA or anyone else for this activity.

I can stop nearly all gang shootings, for example, if I can enter anyone’s home at any time and seize all firearms that I find there. This is blatantly unconstitutional, however, because there is no probable cause for me to seize anything in this case because I have no reason to suspect that the item being sought and seized is intended for, being used for or about to be used for an unlawful purpose.

The exact same situation exists here and it is utterly immaterial if it is convenient for the government to have all of this data “stockpiled” in the event that probable cause may later arise; the seizure of data that has taken place is not permitted under the 4th Amendment without a warrant describing particularly what is to be seized and describing the actual probable cause of criminal activity associated with the transmission and use of said data prior to the seizure.

This is blatantly unlawful activity and must be met with immediate removal from office and indictment of everyone involved, along with impeachment of The President who is damn well-aware of what is being done as the articles have disclosed that the President’s “Daily Briefing” have increasingly relied upon and cited these unlawful programs.

No Government has a right to expect or demand compliance with the law by the citizens when it violates the highest law in the land on a daily basis as a matter of routine.

The United States Government no longer has any claim to legitimacy under our Constitution.
– Karl Denninger

Read it ALL and the comments HERE. Read and absorb.

The enemy is on the move. Be ready for a fight.

Bob Owens at his blog just wrote the new Declaration of Independence:

If you’ve been paying attention at all for the past dozen years or so, the radical left has ramped up their rhetoric into not just competing against their opponents, but in portraying them as an “other” that must be destroyed if their moral good is to be realized.

They have defined victory, Jonah. Their “victory” is the demonization and elimination of all dissent, and all dissenters, every man, woman, and child.

It has been their goal for more than 40 years.

They are not content to stop with political victory, where they merely shape policy. The actions of Executive Branch agencies under the current regime show their desire to destroy conservatives, libertarians, and independents politically, professionally (outside of politics, in private sector business), and personally. This is all within the “normal” doctrine of Alinsky tactics. But if we’re being honest with one another, we all know that Alinsky wasn’t any more content with the thought of stopping with political and personal victory over his enemies than were Stalin, Lenin, or Mao. Like Obama mentor Bill Ayers once dreamed of exterminating all die-hard capitalists, the frothing left dreams of genocide.
– Bob Owens

Read it. ALL OF IT.

Presented without any commentary:

Bill Quick at Daily Pundit noticed this wonderful video HERE featuring butt-licking apparatchiks gleefully signing a “Thank You” card to the IRS for using the Iron Fist of the federal government to target free speech. It’s pleasing when the mask slips a bit, and the statist’s hideous true nature shines through – like a shit covered beacon of shit, radiating shit, mounted upon a pedestal of shit, overlooking a harbor of liquid shit.

Quick had this (and more) to say about these useful idiots:

“Hey, welcome to the future. These are our own generation of home-grown yoots, slavering to lick the boots of tyranny.”

“The only thing that would have made it better would have been to solicit signatures for a petition demanding that the IRS target liberal groups, and then filmed the resulting assaults on the petitioners for supporting, as Jeff puts it, the “hateful hatey haters.”
– Bill Quick

Read the entire piece HERE.

We here at Deth find humorous a particularly poignant fact these grinning tools fail to grasp:When their litany of intolerable acts grow too numerous to bear – and the inevitable civil war results – they will absolutely not walk free of it unscathed.

The sort of 4th generational civil war threatening to boil over in America will “feature” scores of small patriot cells “doing their civic duty” with regards to little goosestepping fascists whenever an opportunity presents itself.

See Yugoslavia multiplied by 1,000,000 for a preview of what’s coming here.

It’s going to be a decentralized, freelance war of annihilation, and none of these morons or their families are going to be safe.

“How can we say such things!?”

Them’s the breaks folks – Don’t be mad at us for calling it like it is. After all, we’ve seen this shittymovie before, and we have the tee-shirt. When a nation demolishes the civil society, (as these Prog-Nazis are well into the process of doing), the creature slithering from the rubble is a good deal less… pleasant… in the manner with which it goes about resolving “disputes.”

By the time they see their folly, we as a people will be well into the bloodshed.

We can’t say we’ll feel particularly bad for the Progs. They eagerly dug America’s grave, they can at least manage a smile when they find themselves flung into it…

…or a road-side ditch, with more orifices than their mothers spat them screaming into this world with.

Whichever.

You know the saying. They don’t happen often but when they do…….

So what is a Hindenburg Omen? It is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market — specifically the NYSE — such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high. This Omen has appeared before all of the stock market crashes, or panic events, of the past 29 years except one, except the mini-crash of July/August 2011. Except for that one crash, no stock market crash (a decline greater than 15 percent) occurred over the past 29 years without the presence of a Hindenburg Omen.

We got a first Hindenburg Omen observation on Wednesday, May 29th, 2013, and a second official confirming Hindenburg Omen observation Friday, May 31st, 2013, meaning we are now on the clock watching for a stock market crash, and at the very least a significant decline.

Now that we have a second observation, we have an official confirmed Hindenburg Omen. This is the first Hindenburg Omen since November 12th, 2012, and only the fifth since 2008, the 2008 signal which of course led to the massive stock market crash in the autumn 2008, and the seventh since the Bear Market started in 2007 (we got one in 2007, one in 2008, two in 2010, two in 2012, and now one in 2013). We got crashes after both the October 2007 and June 2008 Hindenburg Omens.

“The rationale behind the indicator is that, under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows — but not both.” When both new highs and new lows are large, “it indicates the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence — many stocks establishing new highs and many setting new lows as well. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising prices. A healthy market requires some semblance of internal uniformity, and it doesn’t matter what direction that uniformity takes. Many new highs and very few lows is obviously bullish, but so is a great many new lows accompanied by few or no new highs. This is the condition that leads to important market bottoms.”

Our research noted that plunges can occur as soon as the next day, or as far into the future as four months. In either case, the warning is useful. It just means, if you want to play the short side after a confirmed signal, or move out of harms way, you must be prepared to see it happen as soon as the next day, or four months from now, possibly after you forgot about it. About half occurred within 41 days.

Based upon the five parameters noted above, here’s what we found: Confirmed Hindenburg Omens are very rare. There have been only 32 confirmed Hindenburg Omen signals over the past 29 years. November 2012’s was the 31st, and the current one, May 31st, 2013’s is the 32nd. This is amazing when you consider that during that time span, there were roughly 7,250 trading days. Of those 7,250 trading days where it was possible to generate a confirmed official Hindenburg Omen, only 203 (2.80 percent) generated one, clustering into 32 confirmed potential stock market crash signals. This is a very rare alignment, a rare but potentially dangerous condition in the stock market.

If we define a crash as a 15% decline, of the previous 31 confirmed Hindenburg Omen signals, eight (25.8 percent ) were followed by financial system threatening, life-as-we-know-it threatening stock market crashes. Three (9.8 percent) more were followed by stock market selling panics (10% to 14.9% declines). Four more (12.9 percent) resulted in sharp declines (8% to 9.9% drops). Six (19.3 percent) were followed by meaningful declines (5% to 7.9%), six (19.3 percent) saw mild declines (2.0% to 4.9%), and four (12.9 percent) were failures, with subsequent declines of 2.0% or less. Put another way,there is a 25.8 percent probability that a stock market crash — the big one — will occur after we get a confirmed (more than one in a cluster) Hindenburg Omen.There is a 35.6 percent probability that at least a panic sell-off will occur (a decline greater than 10 percent). There is a 48.5 percent probability that a sharp decline greater than 8.0 % will occur, and there is a 67.8 percent probability that a stock market decline of at least 5 percent will occur. Only one out of roughly 8 times will this signal fail.

All the biggies over the past 29 years with the exception of the July/August 2011 decline were preceded and identified by this signal (as defined with our five conditions). It was on the clock just before the stock market crash of the autumn of 2008. It was present and accounted for a few weeks before the stock market crash of 1987, was there three trading days before the mini crash panic of October 1989, showed up at the start of the 1990 recession, warned about trouble a few weeks prior to the L.T.C.M and Asian crises of 1998, announced that all was not right with the world after Y2K, telling us early 2000 was going to see a precipitous decline. The Hindenburg Omen gave us a three month heads-up on 9/11 (2001), and told us we would see panic selling into an October 2002 low, warned in October 2007 that a multi-month 16 percent plunge was about to start, from the DJIA’s all-time high. And it was on the clock three months before the stock market crash of the autumn 2008 into spring 2009 that wiped out 47.3 percent of the stock market’s value.

Full technical s can be read HERE. Could explain Soros recent Rope-a-Dope out of Equities. If your in Equities, best look around for a lifeboat.

From Instapundit:

The Good Dr. Glenn Reynolds is fond of calling President Dronekill’s administration “Carter’s second term.”

Perhaps he would like to revise that comparison?

Give the man another few years, and we can start contrasting him against Pol Pot.

The older posts from 2012 are available in the News Archives Section. Here you can read old updates and articles from years long past - which is rather interesting for seeing the evolution of people's thoughts and opinions over time.

‣ Click HERE to read more.